Conclusion
Explain project results and present problems and limitations of analysis.
Difference between the predicted and actual results
When planning the project, we predicted the soil temperature and soil moisture when global temperature rises within the range of 0 degrees Celsius to 2 degrees Celsius according to climate change. Predicted results were that the soil temperature would increase as the surface atmospheric temperature increased, resulting in active evaporation and reduced soil moisture. In addition, it is expected that urban areas with high temperatures and low initial moisture content will increase soil temperature significantly and decrease soil moisture significantly compared to rural areas.
However, in the actual results, we could not clearly observe the changes in soil temperature and soil moisture due to the rise in the surface temperature. In addition, in the comparison between urban and rural areas, a graph of results different from those predicted by us was derived. Volatility according to weather conditions that change every day for a year was well shown, but the difference between the three graphs of 0 degrees Celsius, +7 degrees Celsius, and +15 degrees Celsius did not appear properly.
Problems and limitations of this modeling result.
1. The modeling period is too short.
We used only one year's worth of weather data when modeling. One year is too short to grasp the general characteristics of the soil that changes according to the surface temperature.
2. The complexity of the response between the actual atmosphere and the surface.
In the actual atmosphere and indicators, variables and results do not have a simple 1:1 correspondence. However, since we derived the change in soil temperature/soil moisture content solely according to the increase in surface temperature from the premise of modeling, it is judged that the conditions necessary for deriving the results were insufficient. In order to understand the mutual characteristics of the actual atmosphere and soil, various atmospheric reactions such as energy movement, water balance change, and temperature and precipitation change must be considered.
3. The study target area is limited.
In the analysis results, urban and rural areas are Seoul and Gangwon-do within the Korean Peninsula. Changes in the ecological environment due to climate change appear differently depending on the location, latitude, and longitude of the region. Therefore, it is necessary to compare the results of the analysis of regions of other countries with the results of the Korean Peninsula to find out whether the ambiguity of these results reflects regional characteristics.